News: Hong Kong Elections Worry Beijing

Hong Kong Elections Worry Beijing”>
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/9597660.htm

DIRK BEVERIDGE
Associated Press
Posted on Tue, Sep. 07, 2004

HONG KONG – After rattling Beijing and the Hong Kong government with huge marches that shifted the political landscape, Hong Kong’s people look set to give their rulers another big thumbs-down at the ballot box.

Pro-democracy, anti-government candidates are expected to take the lion’s share of the popular vote in Sept. 12 legislative elections, but they’re likely to end up a few seats short of a majority under a system critics say is rigged in Beijing’s favor.

The end result could be a legislature more likely to stand up against Hong Kong’s unpopular leader, Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, throwing the territory into uncharted political territory that might sit poorly with the central government.

Whether that would prompt China to clamp down further on Hong Kong – or to become more conciliatory with its opposition – remains to be seen.

“They are so afraid we will control the legislature,” said Hong Kong’s best-known opposition figure, Democratic Party lawmaker Martin Lee. “It shows the Beijing leadership has no trust in the Hong Kong people.”

Analysts say the pro-democratic camp likely lost some momentum during a campaign hit by several scandals – including the arrest and continued detention in mainland China of a Democratic candidate allegedly caught having sex with a prostitute.

An improving economy and a concerted charm offensive by China – including a star-studded visit to Hong Kong in the next few days by victorious Chinese Olympic athletes and the temporary display of one of Buddha’s finger bones – may also sway some swing voters.

The top pro-Beijing party, while admitting it’s been tarnished by its association with Tung, believes some undecided people are turning its way, and against the opposition, to avoid seeing the government paralyzed.

“Hong Kong people don’t want to go to the extremes,” said Jasper Tsang, a pro-Beijing candidate from the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong.

Analysts believe public sentiment will stay with the opposition figures – often branded as troublemakers or even “traitors” by Beijing – even though the electoral arrangements will likely hold the pro-democracy camp to a large minority, perhaps 25-28 of the 60 seats.

Under a one-person, one-vote system, “we could sweep the field,” Lee said.

But China won’t let that happen – a point made clear in April, when Beijing stepped into Hong Kong’s political debate with a ruling that voters here cannot directly elect their next leader in 2007 or all lawmakers in 2008.

Massive discontent had already exploded on July 1, 2003, when 500,000 people marched to protest Tung’s plans for an anti-subversion bill viewed as a wholesale assault on civil liberties.

Tung withdrew the bill in an unprecedented public defeat – and a newly empowered Hong Kong public immediately stepped up demands for full democracy.

Hundreds of thousands turned out again July 1 this year to clamor for universal suffrage.

Now, legislative elections will test the people’s will, with ordinary voters able to directly pick 30 of the 60 lawmakers.

The other 30 will be chosen by special interest groups, such as business leaders, that tend to side with Beijing and Tung as they pick lawmakers through often secretive processes such as corporate voting that critics call an outrage.

“That’s like having lobbyists sitting as legislators,” said former lawmaker Christine Loh, who now runs a public affairs think tank.

Political scientist Michael DeGolyer said the special interest votes created an unbalanced situation in the 2000 election that let fewer than 1,750 voters fill enough seats to gain veto power for Tung’s unpopular government. That was out of 3 million voters.

Eleven special interest seats were filled as soon as nominations closed in August because there was no opposition, and most are government allies.

Responding to its critics, Beijing says Hong Kong’s 6.8 million people now have a greater democratic voice than they did under 156 years of British colonial rule, which ended with the July 1997 hand-over to Chinese sovereignty.

But it’s also believed that Beijing has been working behind the scenes to undermine its political foes. One candidate charged that mainland hackers broke into her e-mail system, deleting messages several times an hour.

Some Hong Kong residents complain that employers have coerced them to vote for pro-Beijing politicians, but the top election official said he found no evidence of dirty politics.