Sun Apr 18, 4:20 AM ET
HONG KONG (AFP) – Many people in Hong Kong want democracy but new obstacles set down by China will seriously dampen these aspirations, according to analysts.
Calls for universal suffrage in the former British colony, handed over to China in 1997, grew louder after 500,000 people marched against an unpopular government bill last July.
Pro-democracy rallies and vigils have since attracted tens of thousands of protesters in the usually apathetic territory.
But Beijing, whose hand-picked chief executive runs Hong Kong, has put a brake on the movement, announcing that it must have the final say on any amendments to the political system.
On Thursday, Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa submitted a report to Beijing recommending “gradual” electoral change but imposing nine conditions on any reforms.
Analysts say Beijing is trying to kill off the pro-democracy campaign by lowering expectations.
“What is of major concern is whether some people in Hong Kong will lose hope and whether they will be more inactive and return to political apathy. That’s our major worry,” said Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at City University of Hong Kong.
Opinion polls show that Beijing’s tactics may be working. According to regular telephone surveys by Hong Kong University, the number of people supporting direct elections of the chief executive in 2007 has dropped from 81.6 percent last July to 62.4 percent in March.
Another poll showed that although a majority of people want a say in 2007, less than half believe they will be allowed to vote.
“I think many Hong Kong people are increasingly politically alienated and frustrated,” said Sonny Lo, political analyst at Hong Kong University.
“Hong Kong people are pretty pragmatic … some may resign to their political fate. More and more people are realising democracy remains a long-distance hope which will be very difficult to realise in 2007 and 2008,” the dates of the next chief executive and Legislative Council elections, he said.
Retired manager Wong Yiu-bor, 66, reflected Lo’s views.
“I think democracy is important and I certainly support political reforms. But a lot of people don’t understand China. They like control and they certainly won’t let Hong Kong have democracy so soon,” said Wong.
Office equipment salesman Ivan Ip, 35, also believed Hong Kong’s future was in Beijing’s hands.
“I feel we Hong Kong people have little power to change or influence anything. That’s why I have stopped going to protests or signing petitions,” he said.
Political scientist Cheng said he hoped the pro-democracy movement would continue in Hong Kong.
“It will take time, it takes a lot of patience,” he said.
“The movement will continue and people have to continue to work hard. There is no substitute.”
Yan Sham-Shackleton Online 